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MSIL's Sep-17 wholesales came in at 154,600 units (+ 14.1% YoY), higher than our estimate of 148,970 units. YTD growth was at 14.6%, with a residual monthly run-rate of 148.5k units.
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Domestic volumes grew 15% YoY to 145k (est. of 138k), led by growth in the compact (+ 24.8% YoY) and UV (+ 34% YoY) segments.
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Growth in the compact segment was led by Baleno and new Dzire, while that in UVs was led by Brezza and the new S-cross.
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Ciaz sales declined 26.2% YoY to 4k (est. of 3.8k).
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Export volumes were flat YoY at 9,300 units (est. of 11,000 units).
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The stock trades at 22.6x/ 19.2x FY19E/20E consol. EPS of ~INR381/448. Maintain Buy.