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FY18 real GDP growth poised for a sharp downward revision
15-May-2019

The Central Statistics Office's (CSO) latest official estimates suggest that FY18 was a turnaround year with three key highlights -(1) Real spending by the government grew at a record-high pace of 14.4% in FY18, almost double the average growth of 7.5% in the preceding three years. Fiscal spending, thus, contributed as much as ~2pp (or 26.4%) to real GDP growth in FY18. (2) Real GDP growth exceeded 7% for the fourth consecutive year in FY18, subduing fears of a demonetization-led slowdown. (3) Growth in investments outpaced that in consumption for the first time in at least six years. Consequently, the investment (as a percentage of GDP) rate picked up for the first time in seven years in FY18